What makes someone an expert? Do they have to be right 100% of the time? Do they have to have encyclopedic knowledge of a certain subject or be able to predict unforeseen events in a particular field? The answer is yes and no.
Yes, experts need to be right from time to time, and they ought to know a lot about their area of expertise. But many people would be surprised to know just how often experts are wrong. That is why you often see significant disagreement between them, some saying one thing and others another. They can’t both be right!
Warren Buffett has made bad investments; Neil deGrasse Tyson has reached errant conclusions about science.
All that to say, it is not enough to find an expert who agrees with you! Because often times they are wrong. Here are 10 examples of experts getting it totally wrong.
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.”
– Marshal Ferdinand Foch, French military strategist, 1911
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.”
– President of the Michigan Savings Bank
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
– H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
– Western Union internal memo, 1876
“Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.”
– Dr. Dionysys Larder, science writer and academic, 1828
“That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done. The bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.”
– Admiral William Leahy
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.”
– Time Magazine, 1966
“X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
– Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883.
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
– Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
– Darryl F. Zanuck, head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946
So before you write off Bitcoin because the experts say it has no future, reconsider! The best thing you can do is to conduct independent research. Start by comparing Bitcoin to other technologies that have succeeded and failed. Consider the financial incentives for and against. Think about what it would take for global adoption to occur.
Whatever you do, make your own educated decision!